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USD/CHF Analysis Report, April 07

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FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS


Neutral Recommendation The Swiss National Bank still has not intervened to prevent further strengthening of the Swiss franc against the euro and traders are unsure about what it will do next. The central bank keeps repeating that it has the means to prevent excessive appreciation of its currency; however, many think it might not be strong enough to stop the eurozone risk-aversion effects.

The EUR/CHF is now at a record low level and its drop isin't expected to ease in the short term.

Against the dollar, the CHF should continue to either depreciate or advance depending on the general market conditions. Any positive U.S. data is likely to bring new long positions. The inverse is also true, but given the current dollar uptrend, the USD/CHF looks well supported and is likely to reach new yearly highs in the long term.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS


The USD/CHF reversed last week's losses completely and seems to be heading towards February highs. A re-test of the 1.0880 region is very likely in the eventuality that it manages to move past 1.0750.

Support and Resistance

R1: 1.0750 S1: 1.0500
R2: 1.0884 S2: 1.0436

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Interest Rates

US 0.25% UK 0.50%
EURO 1.00% JP 0.10%
AUD 4.25% CAN 0.50%
CH 0.25% NZ 2.50%